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European cities will need to invest €1.5 trillion in sustainable mobility measures to meet the EU’s Green Deal emissions targets by 2025. This is the main conclusion of the study “Cost and Benefit of the Urban Mobility Transition”, carried out by EIT Urban Mobility, an initiative of the European Institute of Technology and Innovation (EIT), a body of the European Union, which will be presented on 6 November at the Tomorrow.Mobility World Congress (TMWC), the international event promoting the design and adoption of new sustainable urban mobility systems.

The extensive research provides a detailed simulation of three transition scenarios in twelve European city prototypes, reflecting the diversity of urban environments across the EU. It shows that while technological advances alone could reduce CO2 emissions by 21% by 2030, meeting the Green Deal targets will require much more ambitious measures. The only emissions reduction pathway for urban mobility that meets the 2030 Green Deal target involves a 44% reduction in emissions, but faces significant challenges in terms of public acceptance and behaviour change.

The findings and conclusions of the report, which will be discussed by researcher Stefano Borgato in one of the keynote sessions at the TMWC on 6 November, highlight that the most effective measures to reduce private car use and consequently emissions are a combination of attractive public transport, shared mobility options and access restrictions such as low emission zones. By 2030, these measures could lead to a 7% increase in public transport use and up to a 16% reduction in private car use.

By 2050, all three scenarios analysed in the study are projected to meet the Green Deal’s decarbonisation targets for the transport sector, mainly through continued technological advances and fleet renewal. The study analyses the impact of 39 different measures, including subsidised fleet renewal, the introduction of low emission zones and congestion charging, road pricing, shared mobility and car-free days.

Depending on the measures taken, the study estimates that meeting the 2050 GHG emission reduction targets set in the EU Green Deal will require at least €1.5 trillion of additional investment over the same period, including €500 billion for the implementation and management of various sustainable mobility measures.

In addition to emission reductions, the study points to significant public health benefits. A shift towards more active modes of transport, such as walking and cycling, could lead to cumulative health savings of up to €1,170 per capita by 2050, driven by the benefits of a more active lifestyle. Improvements in road safety are also expected, with a potential reduction in road deaths of up to 70% by 2050 through safer infrastructure and the use of intelligent transport systems.

The research underlines that, whatever the characteristics of a European city, prioritising public transport is essential for a fair and sustainable urban mobility transition. Public transport offers an ideal compromise between CO2 reduction and investment, but is also the only inclusive mobility option for all population groups.