The world will not return to stability, and further crises will occur with increasing frequency, warns Kristalina Georgieva, head of the International Monetary Fund. In her view, one of the greatest challenges of the coming years will be artificial intelligence and its impact on the labor market. The IMF fears that the world may repeat the mistakes made earlier during globalization.
The International Monetary Fund notes that the global economy has entered a period of sustained uncertainty. The COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, trade tensions, and now the conflict in the Middle East show that successive shocks are no longer exceptions but are becoming the new reality. Recently, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva spoke on this topic for the Bloomberg podcast “Leaders with Francine Lacqua.”
“I’m worried that we still don’t fully realize that this is what the world is going to look like. We are not heading toward a future where shocks will disappear,” says Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, in an excerpt from the podcast “Leaders with Francine Lacqua.”
The IMF chief has led the institution since 2019. During that time, the Fund has had to respond to a series of global crises, supporting member countries with financing and economic analysis. As Georgieva emphasizes, a reliable assessment of the economic situation remains a key tool. “The best weapon we have is objective analysis,” she noted.
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Artificial Intelligence Under the Economists’ Microscope
The IMF is increasingly concerned about the development of artificial intelligence. It is not just about the pace of implementing new technologies, but above all about their impact on employment, local economies, and social structure.
Photo credit: Xuthoria / Wikimedia Commons
Georgieva acknowledges that international institutions previously underestimated the effects of globalization. Although the global economy grew thanks to the opening of markets and international trade, many regions paid a high price for this process. In many places, jobs disappeared, and entire communities were deprived of prospects for development.
Together, including the Fund, we underestimated the backlash against globalization, which stemmed from the fact that while the global economy as a whole was doing better, many communities were hollowed out because their jobs disappeared and they were given too little attention. “I’ll tell you what I really wouldn’t want to see happen again—for the same thing to happen with artificial intelligence,” says Kristalina Georgieva.
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AI could transform the labor market faster than we expect
The IMF’s warnings are part of a broader debate on the impact of AI on employment. Georgieva has previously described artificial intelligence as a “tsunami” sweeping over the global labor market. According to the Fund’s analysis, this technology could affect about 60 percent of jobs in developed economies and about 40 percent of jobs worldwide.
The most vulnerable are jobs held by people just starting their careers and professions based on repetitive administrative and analytical tasks. At the same time, experts emphasize that AI can also create new jobs and increase business productivity. However, the key issue remains the pace at which education systems and the labor market adapt to the new realities.
The question is no longer whether artificial intelligence will change the economy, but how to prepare for this change. The IMF chief argues that action should begin now, before the benefits of new technologies become concentrated exclusively in select sectors and regions.
The Fund is currently preparing an update to its global economic forecasts, which will be published in July. In April, the institution lowered its economic growth projections, citing, among other factors, the effects of the conflict in the Middle East. From the IMF’s perspective, however, one thing remains certain: the world must learn to function in an environment of more frequent crises while simultaneously preparing for the next major technological transformation.
