The continuation of ambitious investment programmes in transport infrastructure construction, the recovery of the residential construction market in the largest agglomerations, the development of the offshore wind farm sector, preparations for the construction of the first nuclear units, the implementation of the EU cohesion policy for 2021-2027, as well as the revival in military construction and the Shield East programme mean that the potential of the Polish construction market in the perspective to 2029 remains significant.
The vast majority of planned investments are located within the six most developed voivodeships, which together account for two-thirds of the construction market.
Total value of key investments stabilises
According to a report by research company Spectis entitled ‘Construction market in Poland 2024-2029 – analysis of 16 provinces‘, the total value of the 960 largest ongoing and planned investments in Poland’s 16 regions is estimated at around PLN 880 bn, compared with PLN 865 bn a year earlier. This means that the value of the largest projects has increased only slightly over the past 12 months, reflecting continued inflation rather than the emergence of new significant projects on the horizon.
For the purposes of the report, analysts analysed almost a thousand investments with the greatest impact on the future prosperity of local construction markets. In each voivodship, 60 key investments were analysed (30 each from the volume and engineering construction segments). The total value of flagship projects in the construction phase is PLN 152 billion (similar to last year), and projects in the tender, design or pre-design phase – PLN 730 billion.
On average, an investment analysed amounts to almost PLN 920 million, of which PLN 474 million for buildings and PLN 1.36 billion for engineering facilities. As far as engineering investments are concerned, such a high average value is influenced by a dozen or so megaprojects worth tens of billions of zlotys. However, there is a serious risk that these projects will be delayed and that some of them will not be completed at all.
Pomerania, Mazovia and Wielkopolska in the lead
An analysis of investment plans shows that the leading regions in terms of project value are Pomorskie, Mazowieckie and Wielkopolskie. In each of these regions, the value of the 60 largest investments exceeds PLN 100 billion.
In Pomerania, the leading segments in the coming years will be energy, industrial and hydro-technical construction, as well as roads, railways and housing.
In Mazovia, the largest number of large investments is planned in such engineering segments as: power and industrial, roads, water engineering and railways. On the other hand, in terms of cubic capacity, the most active segments are office buildings, industrial and warehouse buildings, and transport and communications.
In the Wielkopolska voivodship, the vast majority of the value of the largest investments (almost 90%) will be in engineering structures, mainly energy, road and railway projects.
The Silesian, Lower Silesian and Malopolska voivodships follow in terms of total project value (over PLN 70 billion).
Nuclear and CPK still in play despite change of government
The good news for the major regional construction markets is that the new coalition government has not, during its six months in office, backed away from the mega-investments planned by the previous government. However, there has been no acceleration in the preparatory work for their implementation.
As far as spectacular planned engineering investments are concerned, in addition to the Central Transport Port (Mazowieckie) and two nuclear power plants (Pomorskie and Wielkopolskie), which are in preparation, the following should be mentioned: Gdansk Central Port, the Gdansk-Warsaw waterway, the Silesian Canal, the Łódź Fabryczna-Lublinek railway tunnel, the Podłęże-Szczyrzyc-Tymbark/Mszana Dolna railway line (Małopolskie), the North-South Energy Bridge, the A4 motorway extension, the S6 western bypass of Szczecin, the deep-water container terminal in Świnoujście together with the deepening of the waterway and, in the longer term, the realisation of several small nuclear reactors (SMRs).
In addition to CPK, the following large cubic public projects are planned Saski Palace, the Research and Analysis Centre of the National Institute of Public Health PZH – State Research Institute and the extension and modernisation of the Oncology Centre of the Maria Skłodowska-Curie Institute (Mazowieckie), the University Hospital in Świlcza (Podkarpackie), and the Katowice Airport 2024-2028 Investment Programme, including the construction of a new main passenger terminal and a multimodal transfer centre (Slaskie).
