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Although sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) emits similar amounts of CO2 during combustion to traditional petroleum-based fuel, it can contribute to significantly lower net emissions – by as much as 30 to 85 per cent. This is possible thanks to a well-designed production process and carefully selected raw materials. Experts from the international consultancy firm Kearney emphasise that SAF can play a key role in decarbonising aviation, but caution that care must be taken to ensure its production does not cause more harm than good.

Currently, the preferred technology is HEFA (ester and fatty acid processing), but this is only a temporary solution until more efficient technologies become widespread. In the meantime, the need to move away from traditional aviation fuels is becoming increasingly urgent, as evidenced by climate protests, new regulations such as those introduced in the European Union, and announcements by airport operators.

For example, climate activists protested at Cologne/Bonn Airport in July this year under the slogan ‘Oil kills’, demanding a global phase-out of oil, gas and coal by 2030, including in aviation. In 2023, the European Parliament adopted legislation requiring EU airports to ensure that at least 2% of aviation fuels come from green sources by 2025, rising to 70% by 2050. Changi Airport in Singapore has announced that, from 2026 onwards, all aircraft taking off from the airport will have to use a blend containing SAF.

In the coming years, SAF could become a key element in reducing emissions from passenger flights. However, experts at Kearney point out that current SAF production is insufficient to meet global demand and costly. Increasing supply could entail high costs, including environmental costs. Designing a sustainable value chain that includes raw material selection, production, processing and transport will therefore be important.

Sustainable aviation fuel – a necessary but insufficient solution

The aviation sector currently accounts for around 4% of human-caused global warming, and this figure is expected to double by 2050. This highlights the urgent need to reduce emissions in this industry. One such solution gaining prominence is sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which is produced from used cooking oil and oilseeds using HEFA technology, among other things.

While the market for SAF is growing rapidly, this fuel is not an ideal substitute for traditional fuel. While it emits comparable amounts of CO₂ during combustion, ensuring sufficient SAF production in a truly sustainable manner remains a challenge. Without a properly designed value chain, SAF production could have negative effects such as deforestation, soil degradation, water pollution, and rising food prices, which would undermine its environmental benefits.

Marcin Okoński, a partner at Kearney’s Warsaw office, says, ‘One of the barriers to the development of sustainable aviation fuel today is its price. SAF currently costs three to five times more than jet fuel. This is one of the reasons why sustainable fuel is relatively unpopular today. Of the 28 million flights that took place worldwide in 2022, only half a million used SAF.” Economies of scale will significantly reduce production costs, but it will take time to launch new production facilities and secure the necessary raw materials. Supply also remains a challenge. Even meeting half of the current demand for aviation fuel, which stands at 19 billion gallons, would be difficult.

Although sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are a promising solution for reducing CO₂ emissions in aviation, experts from Kearney point out that the HEFA technology currently in use is only a transitional stage. It is a necessary solution while other technologies, such as alcohol-to-jet, hydrogen and power-to-liquid, are still developing and becoming more widely available. While their full implementation and adaptation may take decades, SAF is a viable short-term solution. Other technologies, such as alcohol-to-jet, hydrogen or power-to-liquid, are maturing and becoming more accessible. HEFA fills an important gap in the meantime, enabling emissions to be reduced until more efficient, zero-emission fuels are developed and widely adopted.

It’s not about the fuel, but the raw materials used to produce it

Although HEFA does not differ significantly from traditional fuels in terms of combustion emissions, it can play an important role in reducing net emissions, provided that the entire process — from raw material selection to production and transport — is carried out sustainably. However, experts from Kearney emphasise that the availability of raw materials is already a major barrier. Although sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is often produced from materials such as used cooking oil, municipal waste and sewage, the limited supply of these materials poses a challenge. Paradoxically, the quantity of waste available may prove insufficient to meet the global demand for sustainable aviation fuel.

Currently, the most mature biofuel production technology is HEFA, which uses processed esters and fatty acids derived from sources such as used cooking oil. In theory, this waste is free, and its availability should not be a problem, but, as it turns out, this too is challenging. The United Kingdom, for example, is estimated to produce 250 million litres of used oil per year. Even if 100 to 200 million litres were used to produce biofuels, this would only meet 0.3 to 0.6 per cent of the UK’s jet fuel demand,” explains Marcin Okoński.

Sustainable aviation fuels produced using HEFA technology can be made from various raw materials, but each has certain limitations. Using oilseeds requires an increase in cultivated land, which can put pressure on agricultural land. Conversely, raw materials such as municipal waste, sewage and animal manure are highly heterogeneous, affecting the variable efficiency of fuel production.

In the medium term, ATJ (alcohol-to-jet) technology, which enables the production of fuel from alcohol, appears promising. However, the availability of raw materials such as corn or sugar cane still limits the scale of production. In the long term, therefore, power-to-liquid (PtL) hydrogen technologies have the greatest potential, as they could lead to net-zero emissions in the aviation sector by 2050.

There are already positive initiatives in SAF production management, in terms of both technology and costs. Firstly, alliances are emerging between fuel producers and raw material suppliers, enabling a better match between feedstock and production technology. Secondly, cost management may involve applying for subsidies and financial support, thereby improving the profitability of SAF production.

Another approach is to identify points in the value chain at which airlines can charge a premium for using sustainable fuel (e.g. in ticket prices for customers who prioritise environmentally friendly travel).